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Vsetín vs Havířov Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL

MSFL · Matchday 6 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 12:00

Vsetín

PPG 0.97 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

UPCOMING

Havířov

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 64% chance

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.0% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-15.9%0-24.7%0-32.5%0-4+1.4%1 1-06.4%1-110.1%1-28.0%1-34.2%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.4%2-18.6%2-26.8%2-33.6%2-4+2.0%3 3-03.1%3-14.9%3-23.9%3-32.0%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-13.0%4+-22.4%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.9% 45.5% 2.20 -5.6%

Draw 22.7% 29.4% 3.40 -13.7%

Away win 34.3% 38.2% 2.62 -10.1%

Over 2.5 64.0% 63.7% 1.57 +0.5%

Over 3.5 42.3% 40.7% 2.46 +4.1%

BTTS 63.5% 66.7% 1.50 -4.8%

Home O1.5 49.9% 51.5% 1.94 -3.2%

Away O1.5 47.9% 46.7% 2.14 +2.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 40.9%

Bet Hit 90%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.5%

H 43% / xG 1.7-1.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vsetín1.7

Havířov1.6

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.0% · O3.5 PROB 42.3%

Form & verdict PPG

VSETÍN · PPG 0.97

HAVÍŘOV · PPG 1.06

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

64%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.12 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Vsetín (H) 42.9%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -5.6%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -13.7%

Havířov (A) 34.3%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -10.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vsetín face Havířov in Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vsetín a 43% chance, the draw 23% and Havířov 34%, so Vsetín are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Vsetín and 1.6 for Havířov (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vsetín are averaging 0.97 points per game versus 1.06 for Havířov. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +4.1%.

Vsetín vs Havířov Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL

Match Preview & Prediction

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