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Karviná II vs Frýdek-Místek Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL

MSFL · Matchday 17 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 14:30

Karviná II

PPG 1.58 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDWL

UPCOMING

Frýdek-Místek

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 62.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-17.8%0-25.5%0-32.6%0-4+1.3%1 1-08.1%1-111.6%1-28.2%1-33.9%1-4+1.9%2 2-06.0%2-18.6%2-26.1%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-03.0%3-14.2%3-23.0%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.2%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.2% 33.3% 3.00 +17.6%

Draw 24.4% 26.7% 3.75 -5.1%

Away win 36.5% 52.4% 1.91 -30.3%

Over 2.5 57.2% 58.8% 1.70 -2.8%

Over 3.5 35.2% 38.6% 2.59 -8.8%

BTTS 59.0% 62.9% 1.59 -6.2%

Home O1.5 39.9% 37.9% 2.64 +5.3%

Away O1.5 42.2% 56.5% 1.77 -25.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 35.9%

Bet Hit 88%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.0%

H 39% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 8.2%

#4 1–0 8.1%

#5 0–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Karviná II1.5

Frýdek-Místek1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.2% · O3.5 PROB 35.2%

Form & verdict PPG

KARVINÁ II · PPG 1.58

FRÝDEK-MÍSTEK · PPG 1.20

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.06 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Karviná II (H) 39.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +17.6%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -5.1%

Frýdek-Místek (A) 36.5%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -30.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Karviná II face Frýdek-Místek in Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Karviná II a 39% chance, the draw 24% and Frýdek-Místek 37%, so Karviná II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Karviná II and 1.4 for Frýdek-Místek (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Karviná II are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 1.20 for Frýdek-Místek. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +20.1%.

Karviná II vs Frýdek-Místek Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL

Match Preview & Prediction

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