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Toronto II vs FC Cincinnati II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 23:00

Toronto II

PPG 1.82 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDLW

UPCOMING

FC Cincinnati II

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.9% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a clear edge.

+16.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-12.1%0-21.1%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-05.5%1-16.0%1-23.2%1-31.2%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.0%2-18.6%2-24.6%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.6%3-18.2%3-24.4%3-31.6%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-011.0%4+-111.9%4+-26.4%4+-32.3%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.9% 57.1% 1.75 +11.8%

Draw 15.4% 26.7% 3.75 -25.4%

Away win 20.7% 29.4% 3.40 -17.8%

Over 2.5 68.4% 69.4% 1.44 -1.5%

Over 3.5 49.4% 47.6% 2.10 +3.7%

BTTS 62.2% 69.4% 1.44 -10.4%

Home O1.5 77.9% 66.7% 1.50 +16.9%

Away O1.5 32.7% 44.1% 2.27 -25.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 24%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 74%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob62.2%

H 64% / xG 2.9-1.1 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.6%

#2 3–1 8.2%

#3 2–0 8.0%

#4 3–0 7.6%

#5 1–1 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Toronto II2.9

FC Cincinnati II1.1

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 49.4%

Form & verdict PPG

TORONTO II · PPG 1.82

FC CINCINNATI II · PPG 0.25

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.79 for Home, form 1.82 vs 0.25 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Toronto II (H) 63.9%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV +11.8%

Draw 15.4%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -25.4%

FC Cincinnati II (A) 20.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -17.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Toronto II face FC Cincinnati II in USA - MLS Next Pro on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Toronto II a 64% chance, the draw 15% and FC Cincinnati II 21%, so Toronto II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Toronto II and 1.1 for FC Cincinnati II (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Toronto II are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 0.25 for FC Cincinnati II. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +41.1%.

Toronto II vs FC Cincinnati II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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