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Plaza Amador vs Herrera Prediction— Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Apertura · Matchday 7 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 01:30

Plaza Amador

PPG 2.17 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWL

UPCOMING

Herrera

PPG 0.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 77% chance

Model probability 77.9% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-11.1%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-05.1%1-13.7%1-21.4%1-30.3%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.0%2-16.5%2-22.4%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.4%3-17.6%3-22.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-022.2%4+-116.2%4+-25.9%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 77.4% 80.0% 1.25 -3.3%

Draw 14.8% 20.0% 5.00 -15.6%

Away win 7.8% 10.5% 9.50 -15.5%

Over 2.5 72.5% 69.4% 1.44 +4.4%

Over 3.5 50.8% 46.5% 2.15 +9.2%

BTTS 54.6% 55.6% 1.80 -1.7%

Home O1.5 77.9% 76.9% 1.30 +1.3%

Away O1.5 18.8% 22.2% 4.50 -9.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 47.0%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob54.6%

H 77% / xG 3.5-0.7 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 10.4%

#2 4–0 9.1%

#3 2–0 9.0%

#4 3–1 7.6%

#5 1–1 3.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Plaza Amador3.5

Herrera0.7

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.5% · O3.5 PROB 50.8%

Form & verdict PPG

PLAZA AMADOR · PPG 2.17

HERRERA · PPG 0.36

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

77%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.76 for Home, form 2.17 vs 0.36 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Plaza Amador (H) 77.4%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -3.3%

Draw 14.8%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -15.6%

Herrera (A) 7.8%

ODDS 9.50 · IMPLIED 10.5% EV -15.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Plaza Amador face Herrera in Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Plaza Amador a 77% chance, the draw 15% and Herrera 8%, so Plaza Amador are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.5 for Plaza Amador and 0.7 for Herrera (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Plaza Amador are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 0.36 for Herrera. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +29.3%.

Plaza Amador vs Herrera Prediction— Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Match Preview & Prediction

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