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Sporting San Miguelito vs Herrera Prediction— Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Apertura · Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 23:15

Sporting San Miguelito

PPG 0.90 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWLW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Herrera

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDLL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.7% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-16.3%0-22.3%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.7%1-110.9%1-24.0%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.6%2-19.4%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.2%3-15.4%3-22.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-13.4%4+-21.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.7% 57.1% 1.75 -6.0%

Draw 24.5% 29.9% 3.35 -10.8%

Away win 21.8% 22.2% 4.50 -1.1%

Over 2.5 50.5% 46.5% 2.15 +8.6%

Over 3.5 28.7% 25.3% 3.95 +8.0%

BTTS 47.6% 51.3% 1.95 -7.2%

Home O1.5 48.9% 50.0% 2.00 -2.2%

Away O1.5 18.2% 25.0% 4.00 -16.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 47.0%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.6%

H 54% / xG 1.7-0.7 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.7%

#2 1–1 10.9%

#3 2–0 12.6%

#4 0–0 8.6%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sporting San Miguelito1.7

Herrera0.7

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTING SAN MIGUELITO · PPG 0.90

HERRERA · PPG 0.40

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.98 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sporting San Miguelito (H) 53.7%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -6.0%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -10.8%

Herrera (A) 21.8%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -1.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sporting San Miguelito face Herrera in Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sporting San Miguelito a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Herrera 22%, so Sporting San Miguelito are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Sporting San Miguelito and 0.7 for Herrera (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sporting San Miguelito are averaging 0.90 points per game versus 0.40 for Herrera. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +8.6%. This match finished 3-1.

Sporting San Miguelito vs Herrera Prediction— Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Match Preview & Prediction

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