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CD Arabe Unido vs Veraguas Prediction— Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Apertura · Matchday 7 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 01:30

CD Arabe Unido

PPG 1.64 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWD

UPCOMING

Veraguas

PPG 1.58 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDDD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-110.1%0-25.8%0-32.2%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.2%1-112.9%1-27.5%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.2%2-18.3%2-24.8%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.1%3-13.6%3-22.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.2% 44.4% 2.25 -5.1%

Draw 27.3% 36.4% 2.75 -15.0%

Away win 30.5% 33.3% 3.00 -8.5%

Over 2.5 50.5% 42.6% 2.35 +18.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 23.3% 4.30 +14.1%

BTTS 52.9% 52.4% 1.91 +1.0%

Home O1.5 38.4% 41.7% 2.40 -7.8%

Away O1.5 33.2% 32.3% 3.10 +2.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 47.0%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.9%

H 42% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 1–0 11.2%

#3 0–0 8.8%

#4 2–1 8.3%

#5 2–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CD Arabe Unido1.3

Veraguas1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CD ARABE UNIDO · PPG 1.64

VERAGUAS · PPG 1.58

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.13, combined xG 2.44 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

CD Arabe Unido (H) 42.2%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -5.1%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -15.0%

Veraguas (A) 30.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -8.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

CD Arabe Unido face Veraguas in Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CD Arabe Unido a 42% chance, the draw 27% and Veraguas 31%, so CD Arabe Unido are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for CD Arabe Unido and 1.2 for Veraguas (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CD Arabe Unido are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.58 for Veraguas. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +19.7%.

CD Arabe Unido vs Veraguas Prediction— Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Match Preview & Prediction

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