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Herrera vs Deportivo Universitario Prediction— Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Apertura · Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 21:00

Herrera

PPG 0.90 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Deportivo Universitario

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-19.1%0-26.2%0-32.9%0-4+1.3%1 1-08.9%1-112.2%1-28.4%1-33.8%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.9%2-18.2%2-25.6%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.7%3-13.7%3-22.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.6%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.9% 30.8% 3.25 +19.9%

Draw 25.8% 34.5% 2.90 -15.1%

Away win 37.2% 47.6% 2.10 -21.9%

Over 2.5 53.9% 50.0% 2.00 +7.8%

Over 3.5 31.6% 30.5% 3.28 +3.6%

BTTS 54.7% 57.1% 1.75 -4.3%

Home O1.5 37.8% 34.1% 2.93 +10.8%

Away O1.5 41.2% 47.6% 2.10 -13.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 47.0%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.7%

A 37% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 2–1 8.2%

#3 1–2 8.4%

#4 1–0 8.9%

#5 0–1✓ 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Herrera1.3

Deportivo Universitario1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HERRERA · PPG 0.90

DEPORTIVO UNIVERSITARIO · PPG 0.60

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.03 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Herrera (H) 36.9%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +19.9%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -15.1%

Deportivo Universitario (A) 37.2%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -21.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Herrera face Deportivo Universitario in Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Herrera a 37% chance, the draw 26% and Deportivo Universitario 37%, so Deportivo Universitario are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Herrera and 1.4 for Deportivo Universitario (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Herrera are averaging 0.90 points per game versus 0.60 for Deportivo Universitario. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +22.7%. This match finished 0-1.

Herrera vs Deportivo Universitario Prediction— Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Match Preview & Prediction

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