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Veraguas vs San Francisco FC Prediction— Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Apertura · Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 01:30

Veraguas

PPG 1.55 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDDD

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

San Francisco FC

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-16.9%0-23.9%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.3%1-111.5%1-26.4%1-32.4%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.6%2-19.6%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.8%3-15.3%3-23.0%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-13.2%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.1% 40.0% 2.50 +17.8%

Draw 24.5% 34.7% 2.88 -17.7%

Away win 28.4% 38.5% 2.60 -15.7%

Over 2.5 53.9% 46.5% 2.15 +15.9%

Over 3.5 32.4% 28.6% 3.50 +13.4%

BTTS 54.7% 55.6% 1.80 -1.5%

Home O1.5 48.3% 39.8% 2.51 +21.2%

Away O1.5 35.6% 38.9% 2.57 -8.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 47.0%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.7%

H 47% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 8.6%

#4 1–0 10.3%

#5 1–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Veraguas1.7

San Francisco FC1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.4%

Form & verdict PPG

VERAGUAS · PPG 1.55

SAN FRANCISCO FC · PPG 1.20

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.55 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Veraguas (H) 47.1%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +17.8%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -17.7%

San Francisco FC (A) 28.4%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -15.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Veraguas face San Francisco FC in Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Veraguas a 47% chance, the draw 25% and San Francisco FC 28%, so Veraguas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Veraguas and 1.1 for San Francisco FC (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Veraguas are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 1.20 for San Francisco FC. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +45.8%. This match finished 3-3.

Veraguas vs San Francisco FC Prediction— Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Match Preview & Prediction

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