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San Francisco FC vs Plaza Amador Prediction— Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Apertura · Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 01:30

San Francisco FC

PPG 1.70 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWDW

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Plaza Amador

PPG 2.08 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+22.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-15.4%0-25.7%0-34.0%0-4+3.4%1 1-04.0%1-18.5%1-28.9%1-36.2%1-4+5.3%2 2-03.1%2-16.6%2-26.9%2-34.8%2-4+4.1%3 3-01.6%3-13.4%3-23.6%3-32.5%3-4+2.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.9%4+-22.0%4+-31.4%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.5% 31.7% 3.15 -0.8%

Draw 22.3% 30.3% 3.30 -15.8%

Away win 46.3% 46.7% 2.14 -0.9%

Over 2.5 68.2% 55.6% 1.80 +22.8%

Over 3.5 45.0% 34.5% 2.90 +30.5%

BTTS 63.1% 62.5% 1.60 +1.0%

Home O1.5 45.6% 39.2% 2.55 +16.3%

Away O1.5 59.0% 50.0% 2.00 +18.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 47.0%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob63.1%

A 46% / xG 1.6-2.1 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.5%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 2–1 6.6%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 1–3 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Francisco FC1.6

Plaza Amador2.1

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN FRANCISCO FC · PPG 1.70

PLAZA AMADOR · PPG 2.08

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.54 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

San Francisco FC (H) 31.5%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -0.8%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -15.8%

Plaza Amador (A) 46.3%

ODDS 2.14 · IMPLIED 46.7% EV -0.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Francisco FC face Plaza Amador in Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Francisco FC a 32% chance, the draw 22% and Plaza Amador 46%, so Plaza Amador are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for San Francisco FC and 2.1 for Plaza Amador (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Francisco FC are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 2.08 for Plaza Amador. The best value bet our model finds is TT_AwayO25, with an expected value of +46.6%. This match finished 4-1.

San Francisco FC vs Plaza Amador Prediction— Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Match Preview & Prediction

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