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Plaza Amador vs UMECIT Prediction— Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Apertura · Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 23:15

Plaza Amador

PPG 2.09 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWL

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

UMECIT

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLLD

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 57.7% vs bookmaker-implied 59.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-14.8%0-22.5%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.5%1-19.8%1-25.0%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.7%2-110.0%2-25.1%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.6%3-16.8%3-23.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.4%4+-15.5%4+-22.8%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.9% 63.7% 1.57 -12.2%

Draw 22.2% 28.6% 3.50 -13.4%

Away win 21.9% 20.8% 4.80 +3.1%

Over 2.5 59.7% 52.6% 1.90 +13.4%

Over 3.5 36.6% 33.7% 2.97 +8.7%

BTTS 54.7% 55.6% 1.80 -1.5%

Home O1.5 57.7% 59.2% 1.69 -2.5%

Away O1.5 32.3% 25.8% 3.88 +25.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 47.0%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.7%

H 56% / xG 2.0-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 10.0%

#3 2–0 9.7%

#4 1–0 9.5%

#5 1–2 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Plaza Amador2.0

UMECIT1.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PLAZA AMADOR · PPG 2.09

UMECIT · PPG 0.83

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.02 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Plaza Amador (H) 55.9%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -12.2%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -13.4%

UMECIT (A) 21.9%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +3.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Plaza Amador face UMECIT in Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Plaza Amador a 56% chance, the draw 22% and UMECIT 22%, so Plaza Amador are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Plaza Amador and 1.0 for UMECIT (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Plaza Amador are averaging 2.09 points per game versus 0.83 for UMECIT. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +25.3%. This match finished 3-0.

Plaza Amador vs UMECIT Prediction— Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Match Preview & Prediction

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