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Miramar vs Colón Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

2nd Phase · Matchday 17 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 22:00

Miramar

PPG 0.91 · HOME

UPCOMING

Colón

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.0%0-114.5%0-27.5%0-32.6%0-4+0.8%1 1-013.1%1-113.5%1-27.0%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-06.1%2-16.3%2-23.2%2-31.1%2-4+0.4%3 3-01.9%3-12.0%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.2% 33.3% 3.00 -6.4%

Draw 29.8% 32.3% 3.10 -4.6%

Away win 39.0% 44.4% 2.25 -12.3%

Over 2.5 42.7% 45.5% 2.20 -6.1%

Over 3.5 20.9% 23.8% 4.20 -7.3%

BTTS 48.0% 54.1% 1.85 -11.2%

Home O1.5 30.8% 33.3% 3.00 -7.6%

Away O1.5 32.1% 40.8% 2.45 -21.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -32.8%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.0%

D 30% / xG 0.9-1.0 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 14.5%

#2 0–0 14.0%

#3 1–1 13.5%

#4 1–0 13.1%

#5 0–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Miramar0.9

Colón1.0

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MIRAMAR · PPG 0.91

COLÓN · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.10, combined xG 1.96 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Miramar (H) 31.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -6.4%

Draw 29.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -4.6%

Colón (A) 39.0%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -12.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Miramar face Colón in Uruguay - Segunda División on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Miramar a 31% chance, the draw 30% and Colón 39%, so Colón are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Miramar and 1.0 for Colón (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Miramar are averaging 0.91 points per game versus 1.40 for Colón.

Miramar vs Colón Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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