Today / Uruguay - Segunda División / Uruguay Montevideo vs La Luz

Uruguay Montevideo vs La Luz Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

2nd Phase · Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 16:00

Uruguay Montevideo

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLLD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

La Luz

PPG 0.91 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLLD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.6%0-110.8%0-24.0%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.3%1-112.8%1-24.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.2%2-17.6%2-22.8%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.0%3-13.0%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.1%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.3% 34.5% 2.90 +31.4%

Draw 29.7% 38.2% 2.62 -13.3%

Away win 25.0% 40.0% 2.50 -22.5%

Over 2.5 39.5% 40.0% 2.50 -1.3%

Over 3.5 20.7% 19.8% 5.05 +2.7%

BTTS 47.2% 48.8% 2.05 -3.2%

Home O1.5 32.0% 29.9% 3.34 +6.9%

Away O1.5 18.2% 34.1% 2.93 -28.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -32.8%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.2%

H 45% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.3%

#2 0–0✓ 14.6%

#3 1–1 12.8%

#4 0–1 10.8%

#5 2–0 10.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Uruguay Montevideo1.2

La Luz0.7

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.5% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

URUGUAY MONTEVIDEO · PPG 1.36

LA LUZ · PPG 0.91

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.44, combined xG 1.92 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Uruguay Montevideo (H) 45.3%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +31.4%

Draw 29.7%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -13.3%

La Luz (A) 25.0%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -22.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Uruguay Montevideo face La Luz in Uruguay - Segunda División on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Uruguay Montevideo a 45% chance, the draw 30% and La Luz 25%, so Uruguay Montevideo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Uruguay Montevideo and 0.7 for La Luz (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Uruguay Montevideo are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 0.91 for La Luz. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +20.6%. This match finished 0-0.

Uruguay Montevideo vs La Luz Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Uruguay - Segunda División Predictions