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Fenix vs Miramar Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

2nd Phase · Matchday 16 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 13:00

Fenix

PPG 1.83 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLWD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Miramar

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLDD

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 56.3% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a clear edge.

+15.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-15.5%0-22.2%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.0%1-110.3%1-24.1%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.2%2-19.7%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.7%3-16.1%3-22.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-14.4%4+-21.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.3% 55.6% 1.80 -0.5%

Draw 23.1% 30.8% 3.25 -14.9%

Away win 21.5% 23.8% 4.20 -5.8%

Over 2.5 53.2% 46.5% 2.15 +14.4%

Over 3.5 31.5% 25.3% 3.95 +24.4%

BTTS 52.7% 51.8% 1.93 +1.7%

Home O1.5 56.3% 48.8% 2.05 +15.4%

Away O1.5 23.3% 26.7% 3.75 -7.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -32.8%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.7%

H 55% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.3%

#2 2–0 12.2%

#3 1–0 13.0%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fenix1.9

Miramar0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.2% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FENIX · PPG 1.83

MIRAMAR · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.09 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Fenix (H) 55.3%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -0.5%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -14.9%

Miramar (A) 21.5%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -5.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fenix face Miramar in Uruguay - Segunda División on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fenix a 55% chance, the draw 23% and Miramar 22%, so Fenix are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Fenix and 0.8 for Miramar (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fenix are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.00 for Miramar. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +24.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Fenix vs Miramar Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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