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Cerrito vs Paysandu Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

2nd Phase · Matchday 17 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 18:00

Cerrito

PPG 2.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Paysandu

PPG 0.91 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 55.8% vs bookmaker-implied 46.7% — a clear edge.

+19.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-15.4%0-22.5%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.4%1-110.4%1-24.7%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.8%2-19.9%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.9%3-16.3%3-22.9%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-14.6%4+-22.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% 48.8% 2.05 +9.3%

Draw 23.9% 33.3% 3.00 -17.0%

Away win 22.8% 29.4% 3.40 -13.5%

Over 2.5 53.8% 43.5% 2.30 +23.7%

Over 3.5 32.0% 29.9% 3.34 +6.9%

BTTS 53.8% 57.1% 1.75 -5.9%

Home O1.5 55.8% 46.7% 2.14 +19.4%

Away O1.5 26.1% 32.9% 3.04 -12.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -32.8%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.8%

H 53% / xG 1.9-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–0 10.8%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 11.4%

#5 0–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cerrito1.9

Paysandu0.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 32.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CERRITO · PPG 2.40

PAYSANDU · PPG 0.91

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.99 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Cerrito (H) 53.3%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +9.3%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -17.0%

Paysandu (A) 22.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -13.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cerrito face Paysandu in Uruguay - Segunda División on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cerrito a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Paysandu 23%, so Cerrito are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Cerrito and 0.9 for Paysandu (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cerrito are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 0.91 for Paysandu. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +36.5%.

Cerrito vs Paysandu Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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