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Paysandu vs Atenas Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

2nd Phase · Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 22:00

Paysandu

PPG 1.10 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Atenas

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-19.9%0-25.8%0-32.2%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.1%1-112.9%1-27.5%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.2%2-18.4%2-24.8%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.1%3-13.6%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.6%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.9% 40.8% 2.45 -9.6%

Draw 27.4% 34.5% 2.90 -12.3%

Away win 35.7% 36.4% 2.75 -1.8%

Over 2.5 50.5% 43.5% 2.30 +16.2%

Over 3.5 28.7% 24.7% 4.05 +9.7%

BTTS 52.7% 52.4% 1.91 +0.7%

Home O1.5 37.2% 37.3% 2.68 -0.3%

Away O1.5 33.0% 35.7% 2.80 -7.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -32.8%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 18%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.7%

H 37% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.6%

#3 0–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 11.1%

#5 1–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Paysandu1.3

Atenas1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PAYSANDU · PPG 1.10

ATENAS · PPG 1.27

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.14, combined xG 2.46 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Paysandu (H) 36.9%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -9.6%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -12.3%

Atenas (A) 35.7%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -1.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Paysandu face Atenas in Uruguay - Segunda División on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Paysandu a 37% chance, the draw 27% and Atenas 36%, so Paysandu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Paysandu and 1.2 for Atenas (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Paysandu are averaging 1.10 points per game versus 1.27 for Atenas. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +16.2%. This match finished 2-0.

Paysandu vs Atenas Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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