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Colón vs Tacuarembo Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

2nd Phase · Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 13:00

Colón

PPG 1.55 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWDW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Tacuarembo

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWLL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.0% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+14.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.7%0-17.9%0-22.9%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.0%1-111.8%1-24.3%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.0%2-18.9%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.0%3-14.4%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-12.3%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.0% 45.5% 2.20 +14.4%

Draw 26.5% 35.7% 2.80 -15.5%

Away win 21.5% 30.3% 3.30 -17.4%

Over 2.5 44.8% 42.0% 2.38 +6.6%

Over 3.5 25.6% 23.3% 4.30 +6.0%

BTTS 47.2% 51.3% 1.95 -8.0%

Home O1.5 40.1% 40.3% 2.48 -0.5%

Away O1.5 18.2% 29.2% 3.42 -22.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -32.8%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.2%

H 52% / xG 1.5-0.7 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 16.0%

#2 1–1 11.8%

#3 2–0 12.0%

#4 0–0 10.7%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Colón1.5

Tacuarembo0.7

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

COLÓN · PPG 1.55

TACUAREMBO · PPG 0.80

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.76 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Colón (H) 52.0%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +14.4%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -15.5%

Tacuarembo (A) 21.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -17.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Colón face Tacuarembo in Uruguay - Segunda División on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Colón a 52% chance, the draw 27% and Tacuarembo 22%, so Colón are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Colón and 0.7 for Tacuarembo (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Colón are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 0.80 for Tacuarembo. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +6.6%. This match finished 1-0.

Colón vs Tacuarembo Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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