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Oriental vs Plaza Colonia Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

2nd Phase · Matchday 16 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 23:30

Oriental

PPG 1.73 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDWW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Plaza Colonia

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWDL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.3%0-113.5%0-26.4%0-32.0%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.3%1-113.5%1-26.4%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.2%2-16.8%2-23.2%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.4%3-12.3%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.0% 35.7% 2.80 -2.0%

Draw 30.5% 34.7% 2.88 -12.2%

Away win 34.5% 39.2% 2.55 -12.0%

Over 2.5 43.1% 39.2% 2.55 +9.9%

Over 3.5 20.7% 20.2% 4.95 +1.5%

BTTS 47.2% 48.8% 2.05 -3.2%

Home O1.5 30.9% 32.3% 3.10 -4.2%

Away O1.5 25.7% 34.5% 2.90 -15.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -32.8%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.2%

D 30% / xG 1.0-0.9 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.3%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 0–1 13.5%

#4 1–0 14.3%

#5 2–0✓ 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oriental1.0

Plaza Colonia0.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.1% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ORIENTAL · PPG 1.73

PLAZA COLONIA · PPG 1.64

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.06, combined xG 1.95 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Oriental (H) 35.0%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -2.0%

Draw 30.5%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -12.2%

Plaza Colonia (A) 34.5%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -12.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oriental face Plaza Colonia in Uruguay - Segunda División on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oriental a 35% chance, the draw 31% and Plaza Colonia 35%, so Oriental are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Oriental and 0.9 for Plaza Colonia (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oriental are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.64 for Plaza Colonia. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +9.9%. This match finished 2-0.

Oriental vs Plaza Colonia Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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