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Cerrito vs Uruguay Montevideo Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

2nd Phase · Matchday 15 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 16:00

Cerrito

PPG 2.33 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWL

3 – 0

FULL TIME

Uruguay Montevideo

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-18.5%0-23.6%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.8%1-112.3%1-25.1%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.7%2-18.9%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.2%3-14.3%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.1%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.9% 44.4% 2.25 +5.5%

Draw 26.5% 31.3% 3.20 -9.1%

Away win 26.6% 33.3% 3.00 -12.1%

Over 2.5 47.3% 46.5% 2.15 +1.7%

Over 3.5 27.6% 25.3% 3.95 +5.4%

BTTS 49.1% 54.1% 1.85 -9.2%

Home O1.5 40.0% 42.6% 2.35 -6.0%

Away O1.5 22.6% 33.9% 2.95 -20.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -32.8%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.1%

H 47% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0 14.8%

#3 0–0 10.2%

#4 2–0 10.7%

#5 0–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cerrito1.4

Uruguay Montevideo0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.3% · O3.5 PROB 27.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CERRITO · PPG 2.33

URUGUAY MONTEVIDEO · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.61 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Cerrito (H) 46.9%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +5.5%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -9.1%

Uruguay Montevideo (A) 26.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -12.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cerrito face Uruguay Montevideo in Uruguay - Segunda División on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cerrito a 47% chance, the draw 27% and Uruguay Montevideo 27%, so Cerrito are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Cerrito and 0.8 for Uruguay Montevideo (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cerrito are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.00 for Uruguay Montevideo. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.4%. This match finished 3-0.

Cerrito vs Uruguay Montevideo Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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