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Miramar vs Rentistas Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

2nd Phase · Matchday 15 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 18:00

Miramar

PPG 0.90 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Rentistas

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLDD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.1% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.4%0-113.5%0-28.0%0-33.2%0-4+1.2%1 1-011.2%1-113.3%1-27.9%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-05.5%2-16.6%2-23.9%2-31.5%2-4+0.6%3 3-01.8%3-12.1%3-21.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.3% 31.3% 3.20 -3.0%

Draw 26.5% 32.3% 3.10 -10.7%

Away win 43.2% 46.5% 2.15 -7.1%

Over 2.5 50.1% 45.5% 2.20 +10.2%

Over 3.5 28.1% 23.8% 4.20 +10.8%

BTTS 50.1% 54.1% 1.85 -7.3%

Home O1.5 30.6% 32.3% 3.10 -5.1%

Away O1.5 36.2% 42.6% 2.35 -14.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -32.8%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob50.1%

A 43% / xG 1.0-1.2 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 13.5%

#2 1–1✓ 13.3%

#3 0–0 11.4%

#4 1–0 11.2%

#5 0–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Miramar1.0

Rentistas1.2

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

MIRAMAR · PPG 0.90

RENTISTAS · PPG 2.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.21, combined xG 2.17 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Miramar (H) 30.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -3.0%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -10.7%

Rentistas (A) 43.2%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -7.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Miramar face Rentistas in Uruguay - Segunda División on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Miramar a 30% chance, the draw 27% and Rentistas 43%, so Rentistas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Miramar and 1.2 for Rentistas (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Miramar are averaging 0.90 points per game versus 2.00 for Rentistas. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Miramar vs Rentistas Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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