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Tacuarembo vs Fenix Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

2nd Phase · Matchday 15 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 23:30

Tacuarembo

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWLL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Fenix

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.9%0-113.9%0-27.5%0-32.7%0-4+0.9%1 1-012.5%1-113.5%1-27.3%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-06.1%2-16.5%2-23.5%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.0%3-12.1%3-21.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.3% 34.5% 2.90 +2.4%

Draw 29.8% 33.3% 3.00 -6.4%

Away win 34.9% 42.0% 2.38 -16.9%

Over 2.5 42.7% 40.0% 2.50 +6.8%

Over 3.5 20.6% 21.1% 4.75 -1.3%

BTTS 47.6% 48.8% 2.05 -2.4%

Home O1.5 30.6% 31.3% 3.20 -2.1%

Away O1.5 35.0% 36.4% 2.75 -3.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -32.8%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob47.6%

D 30% / xG 1.0-1.1 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 12.9%

#3 1–0 12.5%

#4 0–1 13.9%

#5 2–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tacuarembo1.0

Fenix1.1

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.6%

Form & verdict PPG

TACUAREMBO · PPG 1.44

FENIX · PPG 1.11

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.11, combined xG 2.05 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Tacuarembo (H) 35.3%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +2.4%

Draw 29.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -6.4%

Fenix (A) 34.9%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -16.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tacuarembo face Fenix in Uruguay - Segunda División on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tacuarembo a 35% chance, the draw 30% and Fenix 35%, so Tacuarembo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Tacuarembo and 1.1 for Fenix (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tacuarembo are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.11 for Fenix. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +6.8%. This match finished 0-2.

Tacuarembo vs Fenix Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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