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Inter De Limeira vs Ferroviária Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Second Stage · Matchday 1 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 20:00

Inter De Limeira

PPG 1.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ferroviária

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.3%0-113.2%0-25.0%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-017.2%1-113.1%1-25.0%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.5%2-16.5%2-22.5%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.8%3-12.2%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.1% 48.8% 2.05 -23.9%

Draw 32.5% 37.0% 2.70 -12.3%

Away win 30.4% 27.8% 3.60 +9.4%

Over 2.5 37.1% 42.0% 2.38 -11.7%

Over 3.5 18.3% 22.2% 4.50 -10.6%

BTTS 42.5% 48.8% 2.05 -12.9%

Home O1.5 30.8% 42.6% 2.35 -27.6%

Away O1.5 20.8% 27.2% 3.68 -14.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 116 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -13.0%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob42.5%

D 32% / xG 1.0-0.8 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.3%

#2 1–0 17.2%

#3 0–1 13.2%

#4 1–1 13.1%

#5 2–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Inter De Limeira1.0

Ferroviária0.8

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.1% · O3.5 PROB 18.3%

Form & verdict PPG

INTER DE LIMEIRA · PPG 1.44

FERROVIÁRIA · PPG 1.11

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.23, combined xG 1.76 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Inter De Limeira (H) 37.1%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -23.9%

Draw 32.5%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -12.3%

Ferroviária (A) 30.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +9.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Inter De Limeira face Ferroviária in Brazil - Serie C on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Inter De Limeira a 37% chance, the draw 33% and Ferroviária 30%, so Inter De Limeira are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Inter De Limeira and 0.8 for Ferroviária (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Inter De Limeira are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.11 for Ferroviária.

Inter De Limeira vs Ferroviária Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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