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Club Atletico Barinas vs Urena SC Prediction— Venezuela - Segunda División

Matchday 24 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 19:30

Club Atletico Barinas

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Urena SC

PPG 2.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 76.0% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a clear edge.

+31.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-12.5%0-23.6%0-33.4%0-4+4.9%1 1-01.6%1-14.7%1-26.7%1-36.4%1-4+9.3%2 2-01.5%2-14.4%2-26.3%2-36.0%2-4+8.7%3 3-01.0%3-12.8%3-23.9%3-33.8%3-4+5.4%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-12.0%4+-22.8%4+-32.7%4+-4+3.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.9% 33.3% 3.00 -13.4%

Draw 17.9% 29.4% 3.40 -23.5%

Away win 56.1% 48.8% 2.05 +15.0%

Over 2.5 76.0% 57.8% 1.73 +31.5%

Over 3.5 55.5% 36.5% 2.74 +52.1%

BTTS 69.1% 62.5% 1.60 +10.6%

Home O1.5 54.9% 40.0% 2.50 +37.3%

Away O1.5 69.9% 51.8% 1.93 +34.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 10.5%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)2.9 BTTS prob69.1%

A 56% / xG 1.9-2.9 / O2.5 76% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 6.7%

#2 1–3 6.4%

#3 2–2 6.3%

#4 2–3 6.0%

#5 1–1✓ 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Club Atletico Barinas1.9

Urena SC2.9

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 76.0% · O3.5 PROB 55.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CLUB ATLETICO BARINAS · PPG 1.60

URENA SC · PPG 2.40

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.99 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Club Atletico Barinas (H) 25.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -13.4%

Draw 17.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -23.5%

Urena SC (A) 56.1%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +15.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Club Atletico Barinas face Urena SC in Venezuela - Segunda División on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Club Atletico Barinas a 26% chance, the draw 18% and Urena SC 56%, so Urena SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Club Atletico Barinas and 2.9 for Urena SC (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Club Atletico Barinas are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 2.40 for Urena SC. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +52.1%. This match finished 1-1.

Club Atletico Barinas vs Urena SC Prediction— Venezuela - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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