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Atletico Avila FC vs Monagas II Prediction— Venezuela - Segunda División

Matchday 19 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 19:30

Atletico Avila FC

PPG 0.89 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLLL

0 – 3

FULL TIME

Monagas II

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.0%0-119.0%0-210.0%0-33.5%0-4+1.2%1 1-011.9%1-112.5%1-26.6%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-03.9%2-14.1%2-22.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.3%3 3-00.9%3-10.9%3-20.5%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.5% 32.3% 3.10 -14.4%

Draw 32.5% 31.3% 3.20 +4.0%

Away win 43.0% 47.6% 2.10 -9.7%

Over 2.5 38.0% 45.5% 2.20 -16.4%

Over 3.5 19.1% — — —

BTTS 45.0% 50.8% 1.97 -11.3%

Home O1.5 30.6% — — —

Away O1.5 33.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 10.5%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob45.0%

A 43% / xG 0.7-1.1 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.0%

#2 0–1 19.0%

#3 1–1 12.5%

#4 1–0 11.9%

#5 0–2 10.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico Avila FC0.7

Monagas II1.1

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.0% · O3.5 PROB 19.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO AVILA FC · PPG 0.89

MONAGAS II · PPG 1.67

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.39, combined xG 1.72 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Atletico Avila FC (H) 24.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -14.4%

Draw 32.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +4.0%

Monagas II (A) 43.0%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -9.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico Avila FC face Monagas II in Venezuela - Segunda División on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico Avila FC a 25% chance, the draw 33% and Monagas II 43%, so Monagas II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Atletico Avila FC and 1.1 for Monagas II (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico Avila FC are averaging 0.89 points per game versus 1.67 for Monagas II. This match finished 0-3.

Atletico Avila FC vs Monagas II Prediction— Venezuela - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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