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Atletico el Vigia FC vs Fundación Lara Deportiva Prediction— Venezuela - Segunda División

Matchday 24 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 19:30

Atletico el Vigia FC

PPG 0.90 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWWW

5 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Fundación Lara Deportiva

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 54.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-111.5%0-210.5%0-36.3%0-4+4.4%1 1-06.0%1-110.8%1-29.9%1-36.0%1-4+4.1%2 2-02.8%2-15.1%2-24.6%2-32.8%2-4+1.9%3 3-00.9%3-11.6%3-21.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.1% 26.7% 3.75 -5.8%

Draw 23.3% 29.4% 3.40 -12.5%

Away win 52.6% 55.6% 1.80 -5.3%

Over 2.5 53.9% 50.0% 2.00 +7.8%

Over 3.5 31.6% 29.9% 3.34 +5.5%

BTTS 54.7% 54.9% 1.82 -0.4%

Home O1.5 30.6% 29.2% 3.42 +4.7%

Away O1.5 50.4% 51.8% 1.93 -2.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 10.5%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob54.7%

A 53% / xG 0.9-1.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 0–2 10.5%

#3 0–1 11.5%

#4 1–2 9.9%

#5 0–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico el Vigia FC0.9

Fundación Lara Deportiva1.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO EL VIGIA FC · PPG 0.90

FUNDACIÓN LARA DEPORTIVA · PPG 1.60

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.88 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Atletico el Vigia FC (H) 24.1%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -5.8%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -12.5%

Fundación Lara Deportiva (A) 52.6%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -5.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico el Vigia FC face Fundación Lara Deportiva in Venezuela - Segunda División on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico el Vigia FC a 24% chance, the draw 23% and Fundación Lara Deportiva 53%, so Fundación Lara Deportiva are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Atletico el Vigia FC and 1.8 for Fundación Lara Deportiva (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico el Vigia FC are averaging 0.90 points per game versus 1.60 for Fundación Lara Deportiva. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +7.8%. This match finished 5-2.

Atletico el Vigia FC vs Fundación Lara Deportiva Prediction— Venezuela - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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