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Swansea vs Wrexham Prediction— England - Championship

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 19:00

Swansea

PPG 1.74 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWW ·

UPCOMING

Wrexham

PPG 1.63 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-19.0%0-24.5%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.8%1-112.7%1-26.3%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.0%2-18.9%2-24.4%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.2%3-14.2%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% 46.7% 2.14 -0.9%

Draw 26.2% 29.9% 3.35 -7.3%

Away win 27.5% 30.3% 3.30 -5.5%

Over 2.5 50.4% 51.3% 1.95 -1.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 29.0% 3.45 -0.6%

BTTS 52.9% 57.1% 1.75 -7.4%

Home O1.5 39.9% 46.5% 2.15 -14.2%

Away O1.5 29.5% 34.7% 2.88 -9.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -5.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.9%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 1–0 12.8%

#3 0–0 9.1%

#4 2–0 9.0%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Swansea1.4

Wrexham1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SWANSEA · PPG 1.74

WREXHAM · PPG 1.63

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.42, combined xG 2.40 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Swansea (H) 46.3%

ODDS 2.14 · IMPLIED 46.7% EV -0.9%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -7.3%

Wrexham (A) 27.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -5.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Swansea face Wrexham in England - Championship on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Swansea a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Wrexham 28%, so Swansea are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Swansea and 1.0 for Wrexham (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Swansea are averaging 1.74 points per game versus 1.63 for Wrexham.

Swansea vs Wrexham Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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