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Burnley vs Bristol City Prediction— England - Championship

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Burnley

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLD ·

UPCOMING

Bristol City

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-17.3%0-25.6%0-32.9%0-4+1.6%1 1-07.2%1-111.0%1-28.5%1-34.3%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.4%2-18.3%2-26.4%2-33.3%2-4+1.8%3 3-02.7%3-14.2%3-23.2%3-31.6%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.2%4+-21.7%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.1% 54.1% 1.85 -35.1%

Draw 23.3% 27.8% 3.60 -9.7%

Away win 41.6% 25.3% 3.95 +64.3%

Over 2.5 61.1% 54.6% 1.83 +11.8%

Over 3.5 38.4% 32.3% 3.10 +19.0%

BTTS 61.5% 57.8% 1.73 +6.4%

Home O1.5 39.9% 54.1% 1.85 -26.2%

Away O1.5 47.9% 33.3% 3.00 +43.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -5.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.5%

A 42% / xG 1.5-1.5 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 1–2 8.5%

#3 2–1 8.3%

#4 0–1 7.3%

#5 0–2 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Burnley1.5

Bristol City1.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.1% · O3.5 PROB 38.4%

Form & verdict PPG

BURNLEY · PPG 1.36

BRISTOL CITY · PPG 1.57

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.03 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Burnley (H) 35.1%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -35.1%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -9.7%

Bristol City (A) 41.6%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +64.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Burnley face Bristol City in England - Championship on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Burnley a 35% chance, the draw 23% and Bristol City 42%, so Bristol City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Burnley and 1.5 for Bristol City (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Burnley are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.57 for Bristol City. The best value bet our model finds is TT_AwayO25, with an expected value of +60.6%.

Burnley vs Bristol City Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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