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Stoke City vs Charlton Prediction— England - Championship

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 11:30

Stoke City

PPG 1.47 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLW ·

UPCOMING

Charlton

PPG 1.39 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWD ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-110.6%0-26.7%0-32.8%0-4+1.1%1 1-010.3%1-112.9%1-28.1%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.3%2-17.8%2-24.9%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.5%3-13.2%3-22.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.3%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.7% 47.2% 2.12 -24.3%

Draw 26.2% 31.3% 3.20 -9.7%

Away win 38.2% 29.0% 3.45 +31.8%

Over 2.5 50.6% 47.6% 2.10 +6.3%

Over 3.5 29.4% 26.3% 3.80 +7.0%

BTTS 52.9% 54.6% 1.83 -3.2%

Home O1.5 33.3% 44.4% 2.25 -25.1%

Away O1.5 36.8% 31.3% 3.20 +17.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -5.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 19%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.9%

A 38% / xG 1.2-1.3 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–1 10.6%

#3 1–0 10.3%

#4 0–0 8.5%

#5 1–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stoke City1.2

Charlton1.3

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.4%

Form & verdict PPG

STOKE CITY · PPG 1.47

CHARLTON · PPG 1.39

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.04, combined xG 2.47 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Stoke City (H) 35.7%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV -24.3%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -9.7%

Charlton (A) 38.2%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +31.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stoke City face Charlton in England - Championship on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stoke City a 36% chance, the draw 26% and Charlton 38%, so Charlton are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Stoke City and 1.3 for Charlton (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stoke City are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 1.39 for Charlton. The best value bet our model finds is TT_AwayO25, with an expected value of +19.8%.

Stoke City vs Charlton Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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