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QPR vs Middlesbrough Prediction— England - Championship

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

QPR

PPG 1.61 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWW ·

UPCOMING

Middlesbrough

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWD ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.9% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-18.2%0-24.9%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.2%1-112.2%1-27.2%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.6%2-19.1%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.8%3-14.5%3-22.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.3%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.0% 31.3% 3.20 +44.0%

Draw 25.2% 28.6% 3.50 -7.1%

Away win 29.8% 47.2% 2.12 -22.1%

Over 2.5 53.8% 56.5% 1.77 -4.8%

Over 3.5 31.6% 34.5% 2.90 -8.4%

BTTS 54.9% 61.7% 1.62 -11.1%

Home O1.5 39.9% 39.2% 2.55 +1.7%

Away O1.5 34.8% 51.3% 1.95 -32.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -5.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.9%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–0 10.2%

#4 2–0 7.6%

#5 1–2 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

QPR1.5

Middlesbrough1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

QPR · PPG 1.61

MIDDLESBROUGH · PPG 1.22

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.30 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

QPR (H) 45.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +44.0%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -7.1%

Middlesbrough (A) 29.8%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV -22.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

QPR face Middlesbrough in England - Championship on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives QPR a 45% chance, the draw 25% and Middlesbrough 30%, so QPR are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for QPR and 1.2 for Middlesbrough (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, QPR are averaging 1.61 points per game versus 1.22 for Middlesbrough. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +35.2%.

QPR vs Middlesbrough Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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