Today / England - Championship / West Ham vs Derby

West Ham vs Derby Prediction— England - Championship

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

West Ham

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDW ·

UPCOMING

Derby

PPG 1.47 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+23.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-16.0%0-24.0%0-31.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-07.9%1-110.6%1-27.1%1-33.2%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.0%2-19.4%2-26.3%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-04.1%3-15.5%3-23.7%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.6%4+-22.4%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.6% 74.1% 1.35 -37.1%

Draw 24.0% 21.7% 4.60 +6.2%

Away win 29.4% 11.2% 8.90 +97.0%

Over 2.5 61.2% 58.8% 1.70 +4.0%

Over 3.5 38.6% 36.4% 2.75 +6.2%

BTTS 61.5% 50.0% 2.00 +23.0%

Home O1.5 49.9% 67.6% 1.48 -26.2%

Away O1.5 42.2% 20.0% 5.00 +111.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -5.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.5%

H 47% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–2 7.1%

#4 2–0 7.0%

#5 1–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

West Ham1.8

Derby1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 38.6%

Form & verdict PPG

WEST HAM · PPG 1.50

DERBY · PPG 1.47

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.42 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

West Ham (H) 46.6%

ODDS 1.35 · IMPLIED 74.1% EV -37.1%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +6.2%

Derby (A) 29.4%

ODDS 8.90 · IMPLIED 11.2% EV +97.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

West Ham face Derby in England - Championship on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives West Ham a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Derby 29%, so West Ham are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for West Ham and 1.3 for Derby (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, West Ham are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.47 for Derby. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +111.0%.

West Ham vs Derby Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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