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Portsmouth vs Cardiff Prediction— England - Championship

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Portsmouth

PPG 0.98 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLL ·

UPCOMING

Cardiff

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-17.9%0-25.5%0-32.6%0-4+1.2%1 1-08.3%1-111.6%1-28.2%1-33.8%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.1%2-18.6%2-26.0%2-32.8%2-4+1.4%3 3-03.0%3-14.2%3-23.0%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.2%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.6% 44.2% 2.26 -10.5%

Draw 24.3% 28.6% 3.50 -9.0%

Away win 36.0% 34.2% 2.92 +5.1%

Over 2.5 59.6% 56.5% 1.77 +5.5%

Over 3.5 36.4% 34.5% 2.90 +5.6%

BTTS 61.5% 61.7% 1.62 -0.4%

Home O1.5 39.9% 48.8% 2.05 -18.2%

Away O1.5 42.2% 41.7% 2.40 +1.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -5.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.5%

H 40% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 8.2%

#4 1–0 8.3%

#5 2–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Portsmouth1.5

Cardiff1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PORTSMOUTH · PPG 0.98

CARDIFF · PPG 1.21

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.07 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Portsmouth (H) 39.6%

ODDS 2.26 · IMPLIED 44.2% EV -10.5%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.0%

Cardiff (A) 36.0%

ODDS 2.92 · IMPLIED 34.2% EV +5.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Portsmouth face Cardiff in England - Championship on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Portsmouth a 40% chance, the draw 24% and Cardiff 36%, so Portsmouth are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Portsmouth and 1.4 for Cardiff (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Portsmouth are averaging 0.98 points per game versus 1.21 for Cardiff. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.6%.

Portsmouth vs Cardiff Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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