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Millwall vs Bolton Prediction— England - Championship

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Millwall

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLL ·

UPCOMING

Bolton

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-17.7%0-24.6%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.0%1-111.9%1-27.1%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.7%2-19.2%2-25.5%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.0%3-14.7%3-22.8%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.6%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 50.0% 2.00 -9.2%

Draw 24.5% 31.3% 3.20 -13.0%

Away win 30.1% 27.0% 3.70 +11.4%

Over 2.5 53.8% 47.6% 2.10 +13.0%

Over 3.5 32.3% 26.7% 3.75 +21.1%

BTTS 55.9% 55.6% 1.80 +0.6%

Home O1.5 43.6% 50.0% 2.00 -12.8%

Away O1.5 35.5% 28.6% 3.50 +24.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -5.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.9%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–0 10.0%

#4 2–0 7.7%

#5 1–2 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Millwall1.5

Bolton1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

MILLWALL · PPG 1.62

BOLTON · PPG 1.21

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

56%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.35 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Millwall (H) 45.4%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -9.2%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -13.0%

Bolton (A) 30.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +11.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Millwall face Bolton in England - Championship on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Millwall a 45% chance, the draw 25% and Bolton 30%, so Millwall are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Millwall and 1.2 for Bolton (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Millwall are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.21 for Bolton. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +28.2%.

Millwall vs Bolton Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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