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Lincoln vs Southampton Prediction— England - Championship

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 11:30

Lincoln

PPG 1.21 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWD ·

UPCOMING

Southampton

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWD ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-19.0%0-26.6%0-33.3%0-4+1.7%1 1-08.0%1-111.9%1-28.8%1-34.3%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.3%2-17.9%2-25.8%2-32.9%2-4+1.5%3 3-02.3%3-13.5%3-22.6%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.5%4+-21.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.8% 25.0% 4.00 +27.2%

Draw 24.1% 26.7% 3.75 -5.8%

Away win 44.1% 55.2% 1.81 -20.2%

Over 2.5 53.8% 57.8% 1.73 -6.9%

Over 3.5 33.4% 35.7% 2.80 -6.5%

BTTS 55.9% 59.9% 1.67 -6.7%

Home O1.5 38.5% 34.5% 2.90 +11.7%

Away O1.5 42.2% 56.5% 1.77 -25.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -5.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob55.9%

A 44% / xG 1.3-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 0–1 9.0%

#4 2–1 7.9%

#5 0–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lincoln1.3

Southampton1.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 33.4%

Form & verdict PPG

LINCOLN · PPG 1.21

SOUTHAMPTON · PPG 1.23

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.16 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Lincoln (H) 31.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +27.2%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -5.8%

Southampton (A) 44.1%

ODDS 1.81 · IMPLIED 55.2% EV -20.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lincoln face Southampton in England - Championship on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lincoln a 32% chance, the draw 24% and Southampton 44%, so Southampton are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Lincoln and 1.5 for Southampton (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lincoln are averaging 1.21 points per game versus 1.23 for Southampton. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +27.1%.

Lincoln vs Southampton Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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