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Preston vs Blackburn Prediction— England - Championship

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 11:30

Preston

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLL ·

UPCOMING

Blackburn

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLD ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-110.3%0-26.7%0-32.9%0-4+1.2%1 1-09.9%1-112.8%1-28.2%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.1%2-17.9%2-25.1%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.5%3-13.2%3-22.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.3%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.7% 41.7% 2.40 -14.3%

Draw 26.2% 30.8% 3.25 -8.9%

Away win 38.1% 34.5% 2.90 +10.5%

Over 2.5 50.8% 50.0% 2.00 +1.6%

Over 3.5 30.7% 29.0% 3.45 +5.9%

BTTS 53.6% 57.1% 1.75 -6.2%

Home O1.5 34.0% 43.5% 2.30 -21.8%

Away O1.5 38.6% 37.7% 2.65 +2.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -5.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 21%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob53.6%

A 38% / xG 1.2-1.3 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–1 10.3%

#3 1–2 8.2%

#4 1–0 9.9%

#5 0–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Preston1.2

Blackburn1.3

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.8% · O3.5 PROB 30.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PRESTON · PPG 1.00

BLACKBURN · PPG 1.29

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.06 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Preston (H) 35.7%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -14.3%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -8.9%

Blackburn (A) 38.1%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +10.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Preston face Blackburn in England - Championship on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Preston a 36% chance, the draw 26% and Blackburn 38%, so Blackburn are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Preston and 1.3 for Blackburn (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Preston are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.29 for Blackburn. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.9%.

Preston vs Blackburn Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - Championship Predictions