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Grimsby vs Swindon Town Prediction— England - League Two

Matchday 45 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 11:30

Grimsby

PPG 1.73 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDLD

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Swindon Town

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDLL

// Model verdict

Home 57% chance

Model probability 54.1% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-16.3%0-23.3%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.6%1-111.1%1-25.8%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.3%2-19.8%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.5%3-15.8%3-23.0%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-13.8%4+-22.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.1% 58.8% 1.70 -8.0%

Draw 23.4% 26.7% 3.75 -12.3%

Away win 22.5% 21.5% 4.65 +4.6%

Over 2.5 53.4% 59.9% 1.67 -10.8%

Over 3.5 31.2% 37.0% 2.70 -15.8%

BTTS 53.9% 61.7% 1.62 -12.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 61 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.9%

H 54% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 1–0 10.6%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 2–0 9.3%

#5 0–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Grimsby1.8

Swindon Town1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 31.2%

Form & verdict PPG

GRIMSBY · PPG 1.73

SWINDON TOWN · PPG 1.64

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

57%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.73), Away GOOD (1.64)

Win probability 1X2

Grimsby (H) 54.1%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -8.0%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -12.3%

Swindon Town (A) 22.5%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV +4.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Grimsby face Swindon Town in England - League Two on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Grimsby a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Swindon Town 23%, so Grimsby are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Grimsby and 1.1 for Swindon Town (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Grimsby are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.64 for Swindon Town. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +4.6%. This match finished 4-0.

Grimsby vs Swindon Town Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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