Grimsby vs Swindon Town Prediction— England - League Two

England - League Two Regular Season - 45 Blundell Park· Cleethorpes Saturday, April 25, 2026 11:30

Grimsby PPG 1.73

4-0 MISS

Swindon Town PPG 1.64

Away· +4.6% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Grimsby face Swindon Town in England - League Two on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Grimsby a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Swindon Town 23%, so Grimsby are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Grimsby and 1.1 for Swindon Town (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Grimsby are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.64 for Swindon Town. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +4.6%. This match finished 4-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 54.1%

Odds: 1.70 EV: -8.0%

Draw 23.4%

Odds: 3.75 EV: -12.3%

Away 22.5%

Odds: 4.65 EV: +4.6%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 53.4% Odds: 1.67 -10.8%

Over 3.5 31.2% Odds: 2.70 -15.8%

BTTS 53.9% Odds: 1.62 -12.7%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 2-0 ✘

5th 0-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Grimsby

1.76

Swindon Town

1.05

Model SuggestionHome -8.0% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -8.0% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+4.6%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5/Under 51%

BTTS/No 61%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -16.4%

Bet Hit 44% (18 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.73), Away GOOD (1.64)