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Doncaster vs Stevenage Prediction— England - League One

Regular Season - 45 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 11:30

Doncaster

PPG 1.45 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Stevenage

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.6%0-111.2%0-25.4%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.8%1-113.3%1-26.4%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.2%2-17.9%2-23.8%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.3%3-13.1%3-21.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.1% 33.3% 3.00 +23.3%

Draw 29.3% 30.8% 3.25 -4.8%

Away win 29.6% 43.1% 2.32 -31.3%

Over 2.5 36.4% 46.5% 2.15 -21.7%

Over 3.5 17.1% 23.8% 4.20 -28.2%

BTTS 43.0% 54.1% 1.85 -20.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -13.9%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob43.0%

H 41% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.8%

#2 1–1✓ 13.3%

#3 0–0 11.6%

#4 0–1 11.2%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Doncaster1.2

Stevenage1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.4% · O3.5 PROB 17.1%

Form & verdict PPG

DONCASTER · PPG 1.45

STEVENAGE · PPG 1.14

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.45) > Away AVERAGE (1.14)

Win probability 1X2

Doncaster (H) 41.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +23.3%

Draw 29.3%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -4.8%

Stevenage (A) 29.6%

ODDS 2.32 · IMPLIED 43.1% EV -31.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Doncaster face Stevenage in England - League One on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Doncaster a 41% chance, the draw 29% and Stevenage 30%, so Doncaster are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Doncaster and 1.0 for Stevenage (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Doncaster are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 1.14 for Stevenage. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +23.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Doncaster vs Stevenage Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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