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Fulham vs Aston Villa Prediction— England - Premier League

Matchday 34 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 11:30

Fulham

PPG 1.81 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Aston Villa

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 60% chance

Model probability 54.2% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-17.8%0-24.6%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.2%1-112.0%1-27.1%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.8%2-19.2%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.0%3-14.7%3-22.8%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.5%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% 38.8% 2.58 +17.4%

Draw 25.3% 28.6% 3.50 -11.5%

Away win 29.2% 39.7% 2.52 -26.4%

Over 2.5 50.9% 55.6% 1.80 -8.4%

Over 3.5 28.8% 33.9% 2.95 -15.0%

BTTS 54.2% 61.7% 1.62 -12.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.2%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0✓ 10.2%

#3 2–1 9.2%

#4 0–1 7.8%

#5 2–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fulham1.5

Aston Villa1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FULHAM · PPG 1.81

ASTON VILLA · PPG 1.44

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

60%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.81) > Away AVERAGE (1.44)

Win probability 1X2

Fulham (H) 45.5%

ODDS 2.58 · IMPLIED 38.8% EV +17.4%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -11.5%

Aston Villa (A) 29.2%

ODDS 2.52 · IMPLIED 39.7% EV -26.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fulham face Aston Villa in England - Premier League on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fulham a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Aston Villa 29%, so Fulham are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Fulham and 1.2 for Aston Villa (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fulham are averaging 1.81 points per game versus 1.44 for Aston Villa. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +17.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Fulham vs Aston Villa Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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