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Tottenham Hotspur U21 vs Birmingham City U21 Prediction— England - Premier League 2 Division One

Regular Season ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 13:00

Tottenham Hotspur U21

PPG 1.66 · HOME

LAST 5

WD ···

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Birmingham City U21

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

D ····

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.8% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-14.3%0-23.5%0-31.8%0-4+1.1%1 1-05.4%1-18.7%1-27.0%1-33.7%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.4%2-18.7%2-27.0%2-33.7%2-4+2.2%3 3-03.7%3-15.9%3-24.7%3-32.5%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-14.7%4+-23.8%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.6% 82.0% 1.22 -43.1%

Draw 24.0% 14.7% 6.80 +37.9%

Away win 29.4% 12.9% 7.75 +76.7%

Over 2.5 61.8% 82.0% 1.22 -24.6%

Over 3.5 40.5% 61.7% 1.62 -34.4%

BTTS 61.5% 67.6% 1.48 -9.0%

Home O1.5 55.8% 87.0% 1.15 -35.8%

Away O1.5 47.9% 33.3% 3.00 +43.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob61.5%

H 47% / xG 2.0-1.6 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.7%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 1–2 7.0%

#5 3–1 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tottenham Hotspur U212.0

Birmingham City U211.6

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.8% · O3.5 PROB 40.5%

Form & verdict PPG

TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR U21 · PPG 1.66

BIRMINGHAM CITY U21 · PPG 1.11

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.41 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Tottenham Hotspur U21 (H) 46.6%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -43.1%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 6.80 · IMPLIED 14.7% EV +37.9%

Birmingham City U21 (A) 29.4%

ODDS 7.75 · IMPLIED 12.9% EV +76.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tottenham Hotspur U21 face Birmingham City U21 in England - Premier League 2 Division One on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tottenham Hotspur U21 a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Birmingham City U21 29%, so Tottenham Hotspur U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Tottenham Hotspur U21 and 1.6 for Birmingham City U21 (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tottenham Hotspur U21 are averaging 1.66 points per game versus 1.11 for Birmingham City U21. The best value bet our model finds is RES_A/O15, with an expected value of +74.6%. This match finished 3-3.

Tottenham Hotspur U21 vs Birmingham City U21 Prediction— England - Premier League 2 Division One

Match Preview & Prediction

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