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Derby County U21 vs West Bromwich Albion U21 Prediction— England - Premier League 2 Division One

Regular Season ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 12:00

Derby County U21

PPG 1.43 · HOME

LAST 5

WD ···

4 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

West Bromwich Albion U21

PPG 0.65 · AWAY

LAST 5

LD ···

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-14.2%0-23.4%0-31.8%0-4+1.1%1 1-05.3%1-18.5%1-26.9%1-33.7%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.4%2-18.7%2-27.0%2-33.8%2-4+2.2%3 3-03.6%3-15.9%3-24.8%3-32.6%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-14.8%4+-23.9%4+-32.1%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.7% 42.9% 2.33 +8.8%

Draw 23.9% 26.7% 3.75 -6.2%

Away win 29.5% 40.0% 2.50 -15.8%

Over 2.5 63.7% 70.4% 1.42 -9.6%

Over 3.5 44.0% 48.8% 2.05 -9.8%

BTTS 62.4% 73.5% 1.36 -15.1%

Home O1.5 57.1% 57.1% 1.75 -0.1%

Away O1.5 47.9% 55.6% 1.80 -13.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-4

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob62.4%

H 47% / xG 2.0-1.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.5%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 1–2 6.9%

#5 3–1 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Derby County U212.0

West Bromwich Albion U211.6

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 44.0%

Form & verdict PPG

DERBY COUNTY U21 · PPG 1.43

WEST BROMWICH ALBION U21 · PPG 0.65

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.42 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Derby County U21 (H) 46.7%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV +8.8%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -6.2%

West Bromwich Albion U21 (A) 29.5%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -15.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Derby County U21 face West Bromwich Albion U21 in England - Premier League 2 Division One on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Derby County U21 a 47% chance, the draw 24% and West Bromwich Albion U21 30%, so Derby County U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Derby County U21 and 1.6 for West Bromwich Albion U21 (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Derby County U21 are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 0.65 for West Bromwich Albion U21. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +14.5%. This match finished 4-4.

Derby County U21 vs West Bromwich Albion U21 Prediction— England - Premier League 2 Division One

Match Preview & Prediction

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