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Brighton U21 vs Arsenal U21 Prediction— England - Premier League 2 Division One

Regular Season ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 18:00

Brighton U21

PPG 1.77 · HOME

LAST 5

LD ···

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Arsenal U21

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

LAST 5

DD ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.4% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-14.7%0-23.6%0-31.8%0-4+1.0%1 1-06.0%1-19.2%1-27.0%1-33.6%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.9%2-19.0%2-26.9%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-03.8%3-15.9%3-24.5%3-32.3%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-14.5%4+-23.4%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 47.6% 2.10 -4.7%

Draw 24.5% 26.3% 3.80 -4.1%

Away win 30.1% 36.4% 2.75 -17.2%

Over 2.5 59.7% 70.4% 1.42 -15.2%

Over 3.5 40.2% 48.8% 2.05 -17.6%

BTTS 59.4% 73.5% 1.36 -19.2%

Home O1.5 55.8% 59.9% 1.67 -6.8%

Away O1.5 47.9% 51.8% 1.93 -7.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob59.4%

H 45% / xG 2.0-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.0%

#4 2–2✓ 6.9%

#5 2–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brighton U212.0

Arsenal U211.5

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BRIGHTON U21 · PPG 1.77

ARSENAL U21 · PPG 1.23

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.43 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Brighton U21 (H) 45.4%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -4.7%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -4.1%

Arsenal U21 (A) 30.1%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -17.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brighton U21 face Arsenal U21 in England - Premier League 2 Division One on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brighton U21 a 45% chance, the draw 25% and Arsenal U21 30%, so Brighton U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Brighton U21 and 1.5 for Arsenal U21 (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brighton U21 are averaging 1.77 points per game versus 1.23 for Arsenal U21. This match finished 2-2.

Brighton U21 vs Arsenal U21 Prediction— England - Premier League 2 Division One

Match Preview & Prediction

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