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FC Rostov vs Fakel Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Matchday 7 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 16:00

FC Rostov

PPG 1.11 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDLL

UPCOMING

Fakel

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLDL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-19.9%0-24.6%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.9%1-113.0%1-26.0%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.1%2-18.5%2-24.0%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.0%3-13.7%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.6%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.9% 51.0% 1.96 -14.0%

Draw 27.4% 29.6% 3.38 -4.4%

Away win 28.7% 23.5% 4.25 +13.2%

Over 2.5 44.5% 42.6% 2.35 +4.6%

Over 3.5 25.5% 23.8% 4.20 +4.3%

BTTS 49.9% 49.0% 2.04 +1.8%

Home O1.5 38.4% 44.1% 2.27 -12.8%

Away O1.5 26.1% 24.4% 4.10 +4.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -15.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.9%

H 44% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 1–0 13.9%

#3 0–0 10.6%

#4 0–1 9.9%

#5 2–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Rostov1.3

Fakel0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FC ROSTOV · PPG 1.11

FAKEL · PPG 1.07

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.38, combined xG 2.25 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FC Rostov (H) 43.9%

ODDS 1.96 · IMPLIED 51.0% EV -14.0%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.38 · IMPLIED 29.6% EV -4.4%

Fakel (A) 28.7%

ODDS 4.25 · IMPLIED 23.5% EV +13.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Rostov face Fakel in Russia - Premier League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Rostov a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Fakel 29%, so FC Rostov are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for FC Rostov and 0.9 for Fakel (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Rostov are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 1.07 for Fakel. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +4.6%.

FC Rostov vs Fakel Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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