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Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Matchday 7 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 11:00

Krylia Sovetov

PPG 1.21 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLWD

UPCOMING

FC Krasnodar

PPG 2.24 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.3% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-110.7%0-28.8%0-34.8%0-4+2.8%1 1-07.1%1-111.7%1-29.6%1-35.2%1-4+3.1%2 2-03.9%2-16.3%2-25.2%2-32.8%2-4+1.7%3 3-01.4%3-12.3%3-21.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.6% 20.8% 4.80 +19.5%

Draw 24.2% 24.4% 4.10 -0.5%

Away win 48.1% 58.8% 1.70 -18.2%

Over 2.5 53.8% 56.5% 1.77 -4.8%

Over 3.5 31.7% 35.6% 2.81 -10.9%

BTTS 55.3% 57.8% 1.73 -4.3%

Home O1.5 30.8% 29.4% 3.40 +4.7%

Away O1.5 47.9% 57.8% 1.73 -17.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -15.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob55.3%

A 48% / xG 1.1-1.6 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 0–1 10.7%

#4 0–2 8.8%

#5 2–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Krylia Sovetov1.1

FC Krasnodar1.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

KRYLIA SOVETOV · PPG 1.21

FC KRASNODAR · PPG 2.24

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.55 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Krylia Sovetov (H) 27.6%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +19.5%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -0.5%

FC Krasnodar (A) 48.1%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -18.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Krylia Sovetov face FC Krasnodar in Russia - Premier League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Krylia Sovetov a 28% chance, the draw 24% and FC Krasnodar 48%, so FC Krasnodar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Krylia Sovetov and 1.6 for FC Krasnodar (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.21 points per game versus 2.24 for FC Krasnodar. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +11.1%.

Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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