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Zenit vs CSKA Moscow Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Matchday 7 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 13:30

Zenit

PPG 2.07 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWLW

UPCOMING

CSKA Moscow

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWWD

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 55.8% vs bookmaker-implied 58.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-15.7%0-22.3%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.8%1-110.5%1-24.3%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.8%2-19.7%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.3%3-16.0%3-22.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-14.2%4+-21.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.5% 61.3% 1.63 -12.8%

Draw 23.9% 24.4% 4.10 -1.2%

Away win 22.5% 18.3% 5.45 +13.6%

Over 2.5 53.8% 54.9% 1.82 -2.1%

Over 3.5 31.6% 35.1% 2.85 -9.9%

BTTS 52.9% 55.2% 1.81 -4.3%

Home O1.5 55.8% 58.5% 1.71 -4.6%

Away O1.5 23.5% 26.5% 3.78 -6.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -15.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.9%

H 54% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–0 11.8%

#3 1–0 12.8%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zenit1.8

CSKA Moscow0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ZENIT · PPG 2.07

CSKA MOSCOW · PPG 1.29

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.02 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Zenit (H) 53.5%

ODDS 1.63 · IMPLIED 61.3% EV -12.8%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -1.2%

CSKA Moscow (A) 22.5%

ODDS 5.45 · IMPLIED 18.3% EV +13.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zenit face CSKA Moscow in Russia - Premier League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zenit a 54% chance, the draw 24% and CSKA Moscow 23%, so Zenit are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Zenit and 0.8 for CSKA Moscow (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zenit are averaging 2.07 points per game versus 1.29 for CSKA Moscow.

Zenit vs CSKA Moscow Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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