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Brighton W vs Man City W Prediction— England - FA WSL

Regular Season - 20 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 11:00

Brighton W

PPG 1.38 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Man City W

PPG 2.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 70.7% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-111.9%0-213.0%0-39.4%0-4+8.6%1 1-04.0%1-18.6%1-29.4%1-36.9%1-4+6.2%2 2-01.4%2-13.2%2-23.4%2-32.5%2-4+2.3%3 3-00.4%3-10.8%3-20.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 11.1% 17.2% 5.80 -35.6%

Draw 18.2% 21.3% 4.70 -14.5%

Away win 70.7% 70.4% 1.42 +0.4%

Over 2.5 55.7% 69.0% 1.45 -19.2%

Over 3.5 33.3% 46.5% 2.15 -28.4%

BTTS 45.9% 62.5% 1.60 -26.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -1.3%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob45.9%

A 71% / xG 0.7-2.2 / O2.5 56% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 13.0%

#2 0–1 11.9%

#3 1–2 9.4%

#4 0–3 9.4%

#5 1–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brighton W0.7

Man City W2.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.7% · O3.5 PROB 33.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BRIGHTON W · PPG 1.38

MAN CITY W · PPG 2.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.11) vs Home AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

Brighton W (H) 11.1%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV -35.6%

Draw 18.2%

ODDS 4.70 · IMPLIED 21.3% EV -14.5%

Man City W (A) 70.7%

ODDS 1.42 · IMPLIED 70.4% EV +0.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brighton W face Man City W in England - FA WSL on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brighton W a 11% chance, the draw 18% and Man City W 71%, so Man City W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Brighton W and 2.2 for Man City W (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brighton W are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 2.11 for Man City W. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +0.4%. This match finished 3-2.

Brighton W vs Man City W Prediction— England - FA WSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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