Today / Romania - Liga I / Rapid vs Universitatea Craiova

Rapid vs Universitatea Craiova Prediction— Romania - Liga I

Matchday 7 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 17:30

Rapid

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLWD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Universitatea Craiova

PPG 1.26 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.4% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-18.4%0-24.1%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.8%1-112.4%1-26.0%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.4%2-19.1%2-24.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.6%3-14.5%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.3%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.1% 37.0% 2.70 +24.5%

Draw 26.6% 30.8% 3.25 -8.1%

Away win 27.3% 41.3% 2.42 -20.4%

Over 2.5 50.4% 50.0% 2.00 +0.8%

Over 3.5 28.7% 28.2% 3.55 +1.1%

BTTS 51.4% 57.8% 1.73 -11.1%

Home O1.5 39.9% 38.5% 2.60 +3.7%

Away O1.5 27.2% 41.7% 2.40 -20.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.4%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.4%

#2 1–0 12.8%

#3 0–0 8.7%

#4 2–0 9.4%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rapid1.5

Universitatea Craiova1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

RAPID · PPG 1.75

UNIVERSITATEA CRAIOVA · PPG 1.26

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.50 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Rapid (H) 46.1%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +24.5%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -8.1%

Universitatea Craiova (A) 27.3%

ODDS 2.42 · IMPLIED 41.3% EV -20.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rapid face Universitatea Craiova in Romania - Liga I on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rapid a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Universitatea Craiova 27%, so Rapid are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Rapid and 1.0 for Universitatea Craiova (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rapid are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.26 for Universitatea Craiova. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +29.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Rapid vs Universitatea Craiova Prediction— Romania - Liga I

Match Preview & Prediction

More Romania - Liga I Predictions