Today / Romania - Liga I / FCSB vs Uta Arad
FCSB vs Uta Arad Prediction— Romania - Liga I
FCSB
PPG 1.94 · HOME
1 – 3
FULL TIME
✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME
Uta Arad
PPG 0.86 · AWAY
// Model verdict
Home
Model probability 55.0% vs bookmaker-implied 65.8%.
Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →
0 1 2 3 4+ 0 0-07.1% 0-15.3% 0-21.9% 0-30.5% 0-4+0.1% 1 1-013.5% 1-110.0% 1-23.7% 1-30.9% 1-4+0.2% 2 2-012.9% 2-19.5% 2-23.5% 2-30.9% 2-4+0.2% 3 3-08.2% 3-16.1% 3-22.2% 3-30.6% 3-4+0.1% 4+ 4+-06.0% 4+-14.4% 4+-21.6% 4+-30.4% 4+-4+0.1%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW ▣ FT RESULT
Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV
Market Model Implied Odds EV
Home win 55.0% 65.8% 1.52 -16.4%
Draw 23.6% 24.4% 4.10 -1.9%
Away win 21.3% 18.9% 5.30 +7.7%
Over 2.5 50.5% 60.6% 1.65 -16.7%
Over 3.5 29.0% 37.7% 2.65 -13.9%
BTTS 48.3% 58.8% 1.70 -17.9%
Home O1.5 56.3% 63.7% 1.57 -11.6%
Away O1.5 18.2% 28.2% 3.55 -21.2%
League track record ↗
Based on 25 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc 44%
O2.5 64%
BTTS 52%
Score Hit 52%
Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL
3 – 0 32% CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 1-3 xG (home) 1.9 xG (away) 0.7 BTTS prob 48.3%
H 55% / xG 1.9-0.7 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
#1 1–1 10.0%
#2 2–0 12.9%
#3 1–0 13.5%
#4 0–0 7.1%
#5 2–1 9.5%
Form & verdict PPG
✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage MODERATE_HOME xG gap +1.16 - moderate Home edge
Season statistics shots · possession · passes · corners · cards · xG + Season Statistics average per match · 7 matches · 2026 FCSB ▾ lower is better Uta Arad
Attack
11.9 Shots inside box
9.3 6.3 Shots outside box
5.6 37.0% Shooting accuracy
24.0% 21.3% Goals per shot on target
24.0% 1.82 xG for 2·2 of 7
1.27 Defence
3.7 Shots on target faced▾
3.9 1.14 Goals conceded▾
1.43 0.85 xG against▾ 2·2 of 7
0.59 Control
83.1% Pass accuracy
77.3% Discipline
Match Preview & Prediction FCSB face Uta Arad in Romania - Liga I on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FCSB a 55% chance, the draw 24% and Uta Arad 21%, so FCSB are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for FCSB and 0.7 for Uta Arad (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FCSB are averaging 1.94 points per game versus 0.86 for Uta Arad. This match finished 1-3.
Matchday 7 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 18:00
