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Hertha Berlin vs Holstein Kiel Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Matchday 31 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 11:00

Hertha Berlin

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLWL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Holstein Kiel

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLL

// Model verdict

Home 53% chance

Model probability 55.3% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-16.7%0-23.2%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.0%1-111.4%1-25.4%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.2%2-19.7%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.8%3-15.5%3-22.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-13.5%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.3% 51.3% 1.95 +7.8%

Draw 23.9% 26.7% 3.75 -10.4%

Away win 20.8% 29.4% 3.40 -29.3%

Over 2.5 49.6% 63.7% 1.57 -22.1%

Over 3.5 27.7% 41.7% 2.40 -33.5%

BTTS 50.2% 67.6% 1.48 -25.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -10.2%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob50.2%

H 55% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 12.0%

#2 1–1 11.4%

#3 2–0 10.2%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hertha Berlin1.7

Holstein Kiel0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.6% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HERTHA BERLIN · PPG 1.33

HOLSTEIN KIEL · PPG 1.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

53%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away AVERAGE (1.07)

Win probability 1X2

Hertha Berlin (H) 55.3%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +7.8%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -10.4%

Holstein Kiel (A) 20.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -29.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hertha Berlin face Holstein Kiel in Germany - 2. Bundesliga on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hertha Berlin a 55% chance, the draw 24% and Holstein Kiel 21%, so Hertha Berlin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Hertha Berlin and 0.9 for Holstein Kiel (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hertha Berlin are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.07 for Holstein Kiel. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +7.8%. This match finished 0-1.

Hertha Berlin vs Holstein Kiel Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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