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Tranmere vs Oldham Prediction— England - League Two

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Tranmere

PPG 1.31 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDD ·

UPCOMING

Oldham

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWD ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-19.5%0-26.2%0-32.7%0-4+1.2%1 1-09.6%1-112.5%1-28.1%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.3%2-18.2%2-25.3%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.8%3-13.6%3-22.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.6%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.7% 32.3% 3.10 +16.9%

Draw 25.7% 30.8% 3.25 -9.9%

Away win 36.5% 43.9% 2.28 -16.8%

Over 2.5 53.8% 50.0% 2.00 +7.6%

Over 3.5 31.6% 28.6% 3.50 +10.6%

BTTS 55.9% 57.8% 1.73 -3.3%

Home O1.5 38.4% 36.4% 2.75 +5.6%

Away O1.5 39.5% 44.4% 2.25 -11.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 61 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.9%

H 38% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 2–1 8.2%

#3 1–2 8.1%

#4 1–0 9.6%

#5 0–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tranmere1.3

Oldham1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

TRANMERE · PPG 1.31

OLDHAM · PPG 1.12

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.02 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Tranmere (H) 37.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +16.9%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -9.9%

Oldham (A) 36.5%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV -16.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tranmere face Oldham in England - League Two on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tranmere a 38% chance, the draw 26% and Oldham 37%, so Tranmere are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Tranmere and 1.3 for Oldham (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tranmere are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 1.12 for Oldham. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +13.2%.

Tranmere vs Oldham Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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