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Baník Souš vs Horní Ředice Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - CFL B

Group B · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 13:00

Baník Souš

PPG 2.12 · HOME

LAST 5

WLW ··

UPCOMING

Horní Ředice

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLW ··

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 75% chance

Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-13.6%0-21.8%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.5%1-18.4%1-24.2%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.8%2-19.7%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.6%3-17.5%3-23.7%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-07.5%4+-17.5%4+-23.7%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.2% 75.2% 1.33 -13.3%

Draw 18.9% 21.1% 4.75 -6.1%

Away win 15.9% 16.0% 6.25 -0.4%

Over 2.5 63.7% 65.4% 1.53 -2.5%

Over 3.5 40.2% 48.1% 2.08 -16.4%

BTTS 54.6% 58.5% 1.71 -6.6%

Home O1.5 66.3% 78.1% 1.28 -15.1%

Away O1.5 29.4% 24.1% 4.15 +13.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 65% / xG 2.3-1.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 9.8%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 1–1 8.4%

#4 3–0 7.6%

#5 3–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Baník Souš2.3

Horní Ředice1.0

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BANÍK SOUŠ · PPG 2.12

HORNÍ ŘEDICE · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.32 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Baník Souš (H) 65.2%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -13.3%

Draw 18.9%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -6.1%

Horní Ředice (A) 15.9%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV -0.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Baník Souš face Horní Ředice in Czech-Republic - 3. liga - CFL B on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Baník Souš a 65% chance, the draw 19% and Horní Ředice 16%, so Baník Souš are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Baník Souš and 1.0 for Horní Ředice (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Baník Souš are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 1.25 for Horní Ředice. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +22.9%.

Baník Souš vs Horní Ředice Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - CFL B

Match Preview & Prediction

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