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Råde vs Gjøvik-Lyn Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 13:00

Råde

PPG 2.38 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWL

UPCOMING

Gjøvik-Lyn

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 71% chance

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.2% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-14.8%0-22.8%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.4%1-19.7%1-25.7%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.5%2-19.8%2-25.7%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.7%3-16.6%3-23.9%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-15.3%4+-23.1%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.5% 51.3% 1.95 +0.4%

Draw 22.1% 23.8% 4.20 -4.3%

Away win 26.4% 36.4% 2.75 -16.4%

Over 2.5 62.2% 75.2% 1.33 -17.3%

Over 3.5 40.2% 56.2% 1.78 -28.4%

BTTS 61.5% 78.1% 1.28 -21.3%

Home O1.5 55.8% 66.7% 1.50 -16.3%

Away O1.5 33.2% 55.6% 1.80 -40.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -22.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.5%

H 52% / xG 2.0-1.2 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.5%

#4 1–2 5.7%

#5 1–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Råde2.0

Gjøvik-Lyn1.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.2% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

RÅDE · PPG 2.38

GJØVIK-LYN · PPG 1.62

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

71%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.86 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Råde (H) 51.5%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +0.4%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -4.3%

Gjøvik-Lyn (A) 26.4%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -16.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Råde face Gjøvik-Lyn in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Råde a 52% chance, the draw 22% and Gjøvik-Lyn 26%, so Råde are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Råde and 1.2 for Gjøvik-Lyn (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Råde are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 1.62 for Gjøvik-Lyn.

Råde vs Gjøvik-Lyn Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6

Match Preview & Prediction

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