Today / Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6 / Sarpsborg 08 II vs Råde

Sarpsborg 08 II vs Råde Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6

Matchday 17 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 17:00

Sarpsborg 08 II

PPG 1.71 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWLW

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Råde

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 83.0% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.5%0-11.4%0-21.9%0-31.9%0-4+2.7%1 1-01.2%1-13.4%1-24.8%1-34.6%1-4+6.7%2 2-01.5%2-14.2%2-26.0%2-35.8%2-4+8.3%3 3-01.2%3-13.5%3-25.0%3-34.8%3-4+6.9%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-13.9%4+-25.6%4+-35.3%4+-4+7.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.0% 23.8% 4.20 +59.6%

Draw 17.5% 20.0% 5.00 -7.5%

Away win 44.6% 67.6% 1.48 -34.0%

Over 2.5 83.0% 83.3% 1.20 -0.4%

Over 3.5 65.3% 67.1% 1.49 -2.7%

BTTS 72.7% 79.4% 1.26 -8.4%

Home O1.5 66.3% 48.1% 2.08 +37.9%

Away O1.5 72.4% 81.3% 1.23 -10.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -22.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)2.9 BTTS prob72.7%

A 45% / xG 2.5-2.9 / O2.5 83% / BTTS 73%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.0%

#2 3–2✓ 5.0%

#3 2–3 5.8%

#4 2–1 4.2%

#5 1–2 4.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sarpsborg 08 II2.5

Råde2.9

COMBINED 5.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 83.0% · O3.5 PROB 65.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SARPSBORG 08 II · PPG 1.71

RÅDE · PPG 1.62

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.39 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sarpsborg 08 II (H) 38.0%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +59.6%

Draw 17.5%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -7.5%

Råde (A) 44.6%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -34.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sarpsborg 08 II face Råde in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6 on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sarpsborg 08 II a 38% chance, the draw 18% and Råde 45%, so Råde are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Sarpsborg 08 II and 2.9 for Råde (5.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 83% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 73% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sarpsborg 08 II are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.62 for Råde. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +105.7%. This match finished 3-2.

Sarpsborg 08 II vs Råde Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6

Match Preview & Prediction

More Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6 Predictions